Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”