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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.