🔗 Share this article

Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the position over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its fifth prime minister in two years – three of them in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The president’s office announced the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”