UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.