Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.